I Hate Hurricanes

No power, no phone, no sleep. Blogging today but probably not for the next couple of days.

The Iraqi Constitution

So nice to see nothing has changed - they still don't have any idea what they are doing. This is what happens when you throw together a whole bunch of people who have no concept of civil society or democracy together and ask them to put together a republican form of government. The Sunnis are staging protests over the proposed constitution - this is what they get for being stupid ignorant morons - if they would have voted when they had a chance then they (and we) would not be in this mess. The Sunnis are worthless scum so if they get screwed so be it. Put Baghdad under martial law and lets be done with this.

A Policy Watch issued by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy explains why the Sunni insurgency has no problem replacing fallen comrades. It is also noted that they operate in a "sympathetic sea" of people - 85% of Sunnis have support attacks on US forces. Two options for us either we make every Sunni pay for every insurgent attack or we get out. We must either crush them or give them what they want - I'm fine with either. This patrolling and driving around and waiting to get our soldier's killed is absurd. They are soldiers after all not police officers. They are trained to fight and if they are Marines to kill. For years the Sunnis ruled by the gun so if we don't turn that same gun on them then beat them with a butt until they understand that they can't get their way. Enough of this already.

Sorry for the violence but I'm feeling rather Jacksonian today (see Walter Russell Mead or read his book Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How it Changed the World if you don't know what I'm talking about).

More Ross - A Q & A on the Gaza Pullout

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy has posted an enlightening interview with Amb. Dennis Ross. Ross discusses the opportunities and pitfalls of the Israeli pullout from Gaza.

The Road Map After Gaza

Dennis Ross is one of those rare foreign policy experts that has the ear of leaders of both parties. Here are is an excerpt of what Amb. Ross says W needs to do to ensure the Road Map to Peace in Israel:

First, the administration must be the spearhead for getting international pledges of assistance transformed into labor-intensive projects on the ground. To date, billions have been pledged, but little has been delivered and Palestinians are not going back to work. With the Israelis out, expectations of the Palestinian public will be high and Abbas must be seen as producing very quickly on jobs in Gaza.

Second, the administration working with the European Union and World Bank should help the Palestinian Authority function more effectively. Abbas inherited Yasser Arafat's system of corruption and ineptitude. He needs systematic help to build his administrative capacity, with specific goals, monitoring, and evaluation established.

Third, the key to Gaza's economy is having unencumbered access to the outside world and the West Bank for themovement of people and goods. That will only happen if Israel is satisfied with the security arrangements to prevent smuggling of weapons and infiltration of terrorist operatives. But the security-for-access arrangements are not yet agreed. While Jim Wolfensohn, the administration's envoy for disengagement, is likely to help forge such arrangements, they will be complicated and are certain to break down. To avoid shutdowns of access and the resulting sourness, Wolfensohn must have the mandate to put in place credible dispute resolution and enforcement mechanisms at each passage and crossing point.

Fourth, the administration must build a bridge to the future. The two sides have very different expectations on what will happen after disengagement: Sharon wants a pause to absorb the emotional trauma and Abbas wants next steps. Each needs an explanation for what is next. The administration should declare that it will take the moribund roadmap and negotiate a common understanding on every Israeli and Palestinian obligation. It won't be easy and will take time. It will take the kind of mediation that the administration has avoided until now.

But Gaza disengagement creates an opening, and it will close for Sharon and Abbas unless the administration recognizes where we are and what is now necessary.

TNR's Despot Watch

This week's typically biting Today in Despotism is now up on the TNR site. This week we learn what weighs heavy on the mind of Burma's General Soe Win, Libyan poets are taken to a reservoir, mini-Putin, aka Alexander Lukashenko, reflects on grain and Fidel is thrilled to have friends again.

Speaking of Hugo...

For you spanish speakers (or readers) Letras Libres, a Mexican magazine founded by associates of the late great Octavio Paz, had an issue dedicated to Hugo and Venezuela. Among the highlights - Carlos Franqui on "castrochavismo", Moises Naim on populists, autocrats and corruption and a sadly prescient piece penned by Alejandro Rossi written just before the elections that brought Chavez to power. Registration is required but free.

Hugo v. Oil Companies

Hugo is slashing oil rates for his Caribbean neighbors but it does not mean that he is in a giving mood. Hugo is going after oil companies that do business in Venezuela - nailing them for tax evasion, reneging on contracts, etc.

Next on Condi's To Do List

Jim Hoagland at the WaPost says now that Condi Rice has improved US relations abroad she faces another trying challenge - improving relations between the administration and the foreign policy bureacracy. As Hoagland notes it is the rare chief executive who thinks highly of the mandarins at state. He mentions Kennedy but he had a love affair with state compared to someone like Nixon. If Condi pulls this off she deserves the Nobel.

The Peace Mission Wargame

The WashTimes has a good op-ed on the military excercises conducted by the Chinese and Soviets...I mean Russians under the Orwellian label of Peace Mission 2005. The piece touches on the different elements of the burgeoning relationship between China and the USSR (drat there I go again). Their primary objective is achieving a multipolar world...hey why wasn't France invited to this party?

Islamic Party in Egypt?

The only reason that this doesn't bother too much is that it is not associated with Muslim Brotherhood. If we are lucky it will turn out to be like Turkey's Justice and Development Party.

US Throws Up A Roadblock To UN Reform

A summit planned to discuss UN reform and poverty could be thrown into turmoil since the US has just offered up 750 amendments a couple of weeks before it was set to kick off. Before we get around to bashing Bolton and US intransigence there are two things to consider. The first being that this cannot be blamed on Bolton. All those criticizing him for pulling this off at the last second should look in the mirror. If his opponents would have approved him sooner (W was getting his way one way or another) then maybe these issues would have been addressed sooner. Since he literally just got the job he should be congratulated for putting this out as quickly as he has.

On a second front the number of objections and concerns is a good sign that the US is taking UN reform and poverty reduction seriously. During the Clinton administration the US would sign on to agreements like Kyoto knowing full well that they would not pass muster with the Senate or Congress. Remember that Kyoto did not get a single yea vote in the Senate. Most of the objections listed by the administration deal with items and issues that have already failed in the Senate or would have a difficult time passing. It is better to be honest to the world community than to make promises that we can't possibly keep.

The Sunnis and the Constitution

NYT has a story on the handful of Sunnis negotiating on the constitution for Iraq. NYT mentions a major sticking point for the Sunnis - federalism. They prefer more central control and less autonomy. USAT today spotlights the other concerns - the role of former Baath members and the seperation of powers.

The Clash in Iraq

No Joe Strummer did not come back from the dead - this is a more violent clash between Shiite militias. Needless to say Moktada al-Sadr is involved. Despite his appeal for peace his militia continues to fight.

I'm Back

First of all my apologies on missing out of the discussion of Arundhati Roy's Power Politics. The tropical storm headed in our general direction obligated me to spend more hours at work than I anticipated. Having now read the book twice I was more than eager to put in my two cents (like not reading it would have kept my mouth shut). Second - electricity permitting I'll be posting since I will probably be sitting at home tomorrow.

A Couple of Days Off...Maybe

Due to the possibility of Katrina striking South Florida and my responsibilities at work I probably won't be posting for a couple of days. theCardinal shall return.

EUnuchs and US Protect Farmers Too Much

According to the Congressional Budget Office the US protects 26% of its agricultural products with tariffs the EU beats us with 39%. So much for free trade.

Schroeder - Germany's Castro

Everytime that Fidel finds himself in a pickle he tries to provoke the US in order to appeal to nationalist sentiment at home. Gerhard Schroeder is no different except slightly more predictable since he only has to play this game everytime there is an election around the corner. Who really cares what he does to US - German relations as long as he wins the election? The US is keeping quiet for now but if Schroeder comes out on top he is going to have a much harder time mending fences.

EUnuchs Giving Up on Iran

After two years of talking the UK, France and Germany have called off the next round of talks with Iran regarding its nuke program. The next step - more talk...I can hardly wait.

Cardinal Confusion

theCardinal is slightly confused. It is true that theCardinal takes his name from the infamous Cardinal Richelieu whose raison d'etat is the first modern manifestation of realism but theCardinal realizes that we live in different times. It is very unseemly for a supposed man of the pulpit to call for the assassination of a head of state...no matter how deserving a punishment that may be. What makes it all the more perplexing is that said preacher has made a career out of pressing pro-life issues. My namesake sought to pursue the interests of his nation-state regardless of his religious convictions and Mr. Robertson may have thought he was doing the same, but he was mistaken. His comments have provided the Bolivarian Tyrant with much needed propaganda. Mr. Robertson has hurt his country and his cause with his comments.

The American Interest v. The National Interest

Be on the lookout for a new journal on American foreign policy - The American Interest. What's interesting about this journal is that not only does it almost have the same name as The National Interest, the 20 year old quarterly founded by Irving Kristol, but it also seems to have swiped two-thirds of its editorial board. Despite being founded by the a neo-con luminary TNI has always had a realist bent and has became more realist upon being taken over by the Nixon Center.

While the new TAI has a couple of neo-cons on it's board it also includes Samuel Huntington and Zbingniw Brzezinski. My only guess is that the board may have found the influence of the Nixon Center to be a bit too stifling. The Center proclaims itself as "America's Realist Voice" and a banner at the in the National Interest site, the weekly e-letter of TNI, approvingly quotes the Boston Globe "if realists have a house organ it is The National Interest." I suppose that those that chose to join TAI did not want to work at anyone's house organ.

Afghan Minority Losing Patience

The Hazaras of Afghanistan an ethnic minority that is doubly cursed by being Shias in a Sunni country are still looking for things to improve. They are pinning their hopes on upcoming elections and maybe even on Iran.

Egyptian Bloggers Make Their Mark

CSM takes note of the bloggers in Egypt. They are not only talking they are also at the vanguard of political action. It is just a matter before they come after them.

The Lie Behind the Russo/China Wargames

Peace Mission 2005 the massive wargame involving the Chinese and elements of the Russian armed forces began its final stage on Tuesday. In an attempt to put the region at ease military leaders for both countries insisted the scenario involved a "U.N. mandate to stabilize a country plunged into violence by ethnic strife." No one should buy this scenario for even a nanosecond.

One of the fundamental tenets of Chinese foreign policy is non-interference. All one has to do is recall the Serbian/Kosovo mess during the Clinton administration. Both China and Russia put up diplomatic roadblocks despite the obvious slaughter on the ground. The Russian position could be justified because of its historical ties to Serbia but China has always stood athwart of any efforts to intervene on the behalf of a oppressed state or people. The reasons are obvious both the Tibetans and the Muslims in China have sought autonomy or outright independence. There is also the touchy issue of Taiwan which the Red Chinese insist on referring to as an internal situation. The amphibious nature of Peace Mission 2005 made it clear that the target was Taiwan. The only country that China is interested in stabilizing is China and the Ruskies are willing to line up with anyone that gives the US a headache.

An Israeli Soldier's Story

Michael Oren the author of the riveting and insightful Six Days of War: June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East is a reservist in the IDF and was called up for the eviction of settlers in Gaza. He has written an article about his experience.

Election Fever in Egypt

The results may be a foregone conclusion yet the upcoming elections in Egypt are generating enough excitement that both NY Times and CSM have stories on two unfolding campaigns. This is a good start and should provide a blueprint for other Arab countries to follow.

Fareed Zakaria is a Genius

Sometimes stating the obvious is the most brilliant thing to do. Zakaria states what I've been railing about for a while - the greatest force multiplier for the US would be to decrease our dependency on petrol.

Koizumi to Step Down Next Year

Even if the Liberal Democrats come out on top PM Junichiro Koizumi plans to step down in September 2006. Koizumi has brought stability to Japan's political climate and been an erstwhile ally of the US - he will be missed.

US to Taiwan - Defend Yourself

The US feels that Taiwan is not doing enough to prepare itself for an attack from China. Since we don't have official relations with the island but the message could not have been made clearer since it was delivered by the "quasi-official" American Institute in Taiwan, the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute.

Zimbawe's A Mess and Mbeki Knows It

The white population continues to flee Zimbawe to friendlier confines, they are being welcomed in Nigeria and Mozambique. South Africa's Mbeki has come to belated conclusion that it is impossible to deal with Mugabe quietly.

Iran Does Not Have a Weapons Program or Does It?

Considering the CW on the Iranian nuke program I should be skeptical of the latest findings that there is no evidence of said program. Then again a NY Times op-ed says they do.

The Iraqi Constitution That Isn't

The Shiites and Kurds pretty much agreed on a constitution but the Sunni and secularists have objections. The Iraqis will be taking a couple of days to try to hammer out an agreement even though the document has already been submitted. As it stands the constitution would pass without Sunni or secular support. Ivan Eland of the Independent Institute says that it doesn't matter what a piece of paper says the constitution will be irrelevant.