Iraq Round Up

Everyone seems to agree that the constitution will pass. NYT mentions that the referendum will probably fail in two provinces, but three are required for the constitution not to go into effect. Turnout appeared high although not as high as it was in January in Shiite and Kurd areas. This did not stop from CSM declaring that voters streamed to the polls and the WaPost putting turnout at 60%. Another sobering piece in the WaPost reported that Shiite participation in some areas was far lower than expected and that many seemed to vote out of devotion to their clerical leaders. The WashTimes touted the higher turnout in Sunni areas as a rejection of insurgent violence, although others suspected it was due to the lesson learned that not participating hurts them more than helps. NYT, among others, also noted that there was remarkably little violence, but they aren't sure what it means. In a an "Analysis" piece the WaPost quotes Condi:

What the referendum "will certainly help to do is to broaden the base of the political process, those who are casting their lot with the political process, which means those who are either sitting on the fence or are supportive somehow of the violence will diminish," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told reporters in London. "Ultimately, insurgencies have to be defeated politically. You defeat them by sapping them of their political support and increasingly Iraqis are throwing their support behind the political process, not behind the violence."

Uh...no. Shiites voted in hopes of defeating the constitution. Why should they feel any better about the process after getting their tail kicked? I would love for Condi to be right, but it does not make any sense. The "Analysis" goes on to reflect that the US has a tough road ahead in Iraq.