On the Newstand: China Syndrome I

The Economist goes ga-ga over China this week, China gets three of the four articles in the Asia section. The first bit of info is on China's Five Year "Program" - they're not doing "Plans" anymore. The Economist likes what it hears:

The five-year programme for 2006 to 2010, endorsed on October 11th by the Communist Party's Central Committee, by no means abandons the pursuit of high growth. But, according to a communiqué issued at the end of the four-day annual meeting, it is “essential” for China to “speed up the transformation of the economic growth pattern”. Details of the programme are still secret (it will not be formally promulgated until the annual session of parliament next March). But officials say the transformation includes ensuring that growth is more evenly shared across the country, is less investment-driven and less polluting.

Nonetheless there is obviously a difficult road ahead:

What can China's leaders do? Among the very few specifics suggested by the communiqué is a goal of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20% over the next five years, but that is easier said than done. More vaguely, it calls for “big improvements” in education and public health. The social security system, currently in tatters, should be put on a “relatively firm basis”. How any of this will be financed is left unsaid. In a research report, Stephen Green of Standard Chartered, a British bank, says it is highly unlikely that China will intentionally pursue new policies, such as higher income-tax rates, that could undermine growth and job creation.

But Mr Green suggests that growth could suffer as an unintentional consequence of pursuing equality. In the past couple of years, privatisation as slowed down as a result of an outcry over asset-stripping by managers of state-owned enterprises. The new document, unlike its equivalent that was issued by the party five years ago, makes no mention of any need to boost the private sector. Nor does it suggest, as the party did last time, that “orderly participation in politics” by citizens should be expanded.

A second piece reports on troubles in Taishi, a prosperous village, where thugs rule. A strong recall movement to toss out the village chief got a bit too popular so local officials had to respond:

Repeated protests by the villagers eventually prompted the authorities to arrange an election in September to create a recall committee that was supposed to meet this month to arrange a referendum. But thugs, apparently supported by village officials, began putting pressure on villagers and committee members. The committee resigned and support for the recall dried up.

On October 8th, a journalist from the Guardian, a British newspaper, accompanied by Lu Banglie, an activist who had been trying to promote the villagers' cause, was stopped from entering by a group of 30 to 50 goons, some wearing camouflage. They dragged Mr Lu from the car and beat him unconscious. The journalist was punched, but then allowed to leave. A bruised but apparently not grievously harmed Mr Lu was driven by officials back to his home province. A number of other Chinese lawyers and activists, as well as foreign journalists, who have tried to enter the village have been arrested or intimidated.

The Economist goes on to insist that there is little that the central government can do to stem the tide of gangsterism. Finally we get a story about the Reds in space and how it is freaking out the Japanese:

The speed with which China has developed manned space flight has surprised and alarmed Japanese policymakers. Shame was added to the mix when just a month after China's first manned flight, in October 2003, a Japanese rocket carrying two spy satellites had to be blown up, ignominiously, ten minutes after the launch when a booster failed to disengage. Further satellite launches were restarted only last spring.

For years Japan's space programme has dwindled, a consequence of budget cuts and of Japan's constitutional inability to develop anything that might have military applications. Japan now spends just $1.8 billion a year on its space programme, a fall of one-third from the peak: still more than China says it spends, but a fraction of NASA's annual budget.

China's progress in space has strengthened the hand of Japan's space lobby. In March, the Japanese space agency, JAXA, under a new head, Keiji Tachikawa (who previously ran NTT DoCoMo, the country's mobile-phone giant), laid out its new vision for the next 20 years. JAXA wants a manned space programme, with a space station on the moon. Some Japanese policymakers argue that space is an area where much needed co-operation could actually take place between Japan and China. But there is precious little sign of that yet.