China Will be # 1
According to the OECD China will be the world's biggest exporter in five years and biggest economy by mid-century.
posted by theCardinal @ 3:59 PM
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3 Comments:
Implications for the global economy? In the past, #1 has drawn up the rules - hence we have the 'Washington Consensus' at present.
The erosion of the old consensus is the theme of a recent article. It reminds us that history is repeating itself in US financial governance: a similar lack of financial control in the 1960's drove the US to a drastic solution in the following decade - which was to scrap the UN (IMF) system of global monetary discipline, and introduce floating exchange rates. A new set of rules.
But the EU is a player too. They have been trying to reintroduce monetary discipline with a common currency.
I agree that this could very reshape the global economy and financial markets. It is sad that the US continues to repeat the mistakes that led it to scrap Bretton Woods.
Pardon my ignorance but didn't the EU scrap debt limits in order to have the Euro? I applauded the original restrictions but I knew that there was little chance of France, Italy and Germany could strictly abide for an extended period of time.
Good point. The early rules for the euro prevented too many countries from volunteering to join a system of monetary discipline. Therefore the rules had to be slackened, as a compromise, but the main objective of limiting public spending was still met.
It's hard work to reintroduce what is effectively a system of fixed exchange rates - the financial institutions that sprang up after the US scrapped the discipline 30 years ago don't welcome the stability. And national budgetary stresses, together with the lack of independent audit, aren't helping either. It's a work in progress.
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