Domino Theory Redux

The Global Views column is a world round-up of opinion found on the Foreign Policy Association site. Here is Robert Nolan:

When U.S. President George Bush announced his goal to make Iraq “a dramatic and inspiring example for other nations in the region”, political pundits generally scoffed at the veracity of such a proposal. Indeed, with Iraq in turmoil and U.S. support for non-democratic regimes at its peak since the start of the so-called war on terror, such statements were viewed at best as political cover for the administration's failure to find weapons of mass destruction and at worst, a façade for wider American plans for regional domination.

Nowadays, however, the global punditocracy has changed its tune. While few are wholly attributing the unexpected winds of change currently blowing through the Middle East to U.S. policy alone, most affirm that the right combination of political pressure, grassroots civic movements and a healthy dose of sheer luck has produced what the Dallas Morning News calls “a moment of great drama and guarded hope” for democracy in the region.

Of course not all credit is laid at W's doorstep:

While most award a hard-headed U.S. policy in the region with a certain degree of credit for current democratic developments, analysts also allude to the near perfect storm of elements outside of any one government's control as responsible for the recent windstorm blowing through the Middle East. The Times of London, for example, writes that, possibly “the greatest catalyst for change was the death of Yassir Arafat in November,” whose “passing opened the way for elections in January and has led to the first real drive for peace between Israel and Palestinians in years.”

Also credited is the Syrian misstep in Lebanon and the international vote of confidence for Abbas.